中印首谈“前瞻性”值得关注351105303BILINGUALBILINGUAL/enpproperty-->

玉渊潭天

By Yuyuantantian

7月17日,中印两军举行第十六轮军长级会谈。会谈结束后,中印双方发布的联合新闻稿中,提到了这样一句话:双方在3月11日会谈基础上,以建设性和前瞻性方式继续探讨推动解决中印边界西段实控线地区有关问题。

The 16th round China-India Corps Commander Level Meeting was held on July 17. Building on the progress made at the last meeting on March 11, 2022, the two sides continued discussions for the resolution of the issues related to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Western Sector of the China-India border in a constructive and forward-looking manner, according to the joint press release after the meeting.

“前瞻性”这个词,在十六轮军长级会谈新闻稿中,还是第一次出现。有关消息人士表示,这个词表明,此次会谈中,至少一方拿出了方案,并正就这一方案进行磋商。前瞻性,放在当前的国际形势下来看,更有深意。

This was the first time that the word “forward-looking” appeared in the press release during the 16 rounds of meetings. The word indicated that at least one side came up with a plan and both sides were working on it, according to the source. Forward looking is more meaningful in the current international situation.

此次会谈,距离上一轮会谈已经过去了4个多月。这是十六轮军长级会谈中,间隔时间最长的。这段时间里,最大的地缘政治背景,就是俄乌冲突。尽管俄乌冲突发生在欧洲,但身处亚洲的印度,却成为了一个焦点。

俄乌冲突升级后,以美欧为首的西方国家在对俄罗斯实施制裁的同时,还要求其他国家选边站队,不少国家被迫作出表态,印度更是美国施压的重点。美西方国家像是约好了一般,纷纷与印度开展外交互动。

More than four months have passed since last meeting. This was the longest interval among the 16 rounds of corps commander-level talks. The biggest geopolitical background during this period was the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict occurred in Europe, India, which is in Asia, has become a focus.

After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, western countries led by the US and Europe asked other countries to choose a side while imposing sanctions on Russia. Many countries were forced to make a statement, and India was the focus of US pressure. The US and Western countries seemed to have agreed and conducted diplomatic interactions with India one after another.

清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员周波称,俄乌冲突升级后,印度一直被视为“四方安全对话”机制中的薄弱环节,印度在俄乌问题中的选择更是让美国不满,美媒更是直白评论,美国不该再对印度抱有幻想。然而,乐于参与各种多边机制,希望能在各种力量中左右逢源的印度不会完全倒向一边。印度被逼到墙角之后,开始展现“不装”的印度。

Zhou Bo, a researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said that after the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has always been regarded as a weak link in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue(QSD). India's choice in the Russia-Ukraine issue was even more dissatisfying to the US. Some US media commented that the US should no longer have illusions about India. However, India, which is happy to participate in various multilateral mechanisms and hopes to work with various forces, would not choose one side completely. After India was forced into a corner, it would show a "real" India.

印度在俄乌问题中没有完全站在美国一边,固然与印俄有深厚渊源的历史原因有关,但更重要的还是现实因素。印度一直有大国的抱负,而俄乌冲突给了印度一个重新审视该如何实现抱负的机会。周波曾多次访问印度,他认为对于正在高速发展的印度,印度不希望破坏自己和平稳定的发展环境,这一点最为重要。

Although the reason why India did not fully side with the US in the Russia-Ukraine issue was related to the history that India and Russia had deep ties, the reality was the more important factor. India has always had major power ambitions, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict had given India an opportunity to re-examine how to achieve its ambitions. Zhou had visited India many times. He believes that India, which is developing rapidly, does not want to destroy its peaceful and stable development environment.

俄乌冲突,给了印度一个重新寻找自己在域内定位、三思而后抉择的当口。在俄乌冲突的背景板下,印度观察和思考的时间越长,做出的理性选择就更多,解决问题的契机,就越大。在这样的情形下再来理解前瞻性,这表明中印又在相向而行的道路上迈出一步,这样的前瞻性,是放在中印关系大局下思考的结果。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has given India time to re-find its own positioning in the region and think twice before making a choice. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the longer India observes and thinks, the more rational choices it will make. And it will have greater opportunities to solve the problem. Under such circumstances, the word “forward-looking” shows that China and India are taking another step on working towards the same direction. Such forward-looking is the result of thinking about the overall situation of China-India relations.

中国和印度,都是10亿以上人口级别的新兴经济体和具有战略自主性的重要国家,中印两国的同时发展也给彼此带来了有益机会,中印两国,应该以成熟和智慧的方式、通过和平协商处理分歧问题。中印关系,不只有边界问题。

China and India are both emerging economies with a population of more than one billion and important countries with strategic autonomy. The simultaneous development of China and India has also brought beneficial opportunities to each other. China and India should use maturity and wisdom to resolve differences through peaceful consultation. China-India relations are not only defined by border issues.

去年,中印关系之间的寒意还未消散之际,中印之间的贸易额突破1000亿美元大关,同比增长43%。这一数据,就是最好的明证。此外,中印双方在产业结构上具有很大的互补性,随着印度消费水平的不断提高,中印贸易还有很大潜力可以挖掘。作为成熟理性的发展中大国,中印双方应该将边界问题置于双边关系适当位置,不应用边界问题定义甚至影响双边关系整体发展。

Last year, before the chill between China-India relations dissipated, trade between the two sides crossed the mark of US$100 billion, up 43 percent year-on-year, which is the best proof. In addition, China and India have great complementarities in industrial structure. With the continuous improvement of India's consumption level, there is still great potential for China-India trade. As mature and rational major developing countries, China and India should place the border issue in a proper position in the bilateral relationship and should not let the border issue define or even affect the overall development of the bilateral relationship.

复旦大学国际问题研究院研究员林民旺表示,从去年开始,双方就在考虑新的管控措施。今年三月,双方应该是有初步的沟通,这四个多月时间里,双方应该也是将初步的东西进行细化。今年上半年,面对严峻复杂的国际形势,中印双方在军事、外交领域的交流交替进行,沟通,未曾中断。

Lin Minwang, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, said the two sides have been considering new control measures since 2021. The two sides had preliminary communication in March 2022, and in the past four months, the two sides also refined the preliminary things. In the face of the severe and complex international situation in the first half of 2022, the exchanges between China and India in the military and diplomatic fields have been carried out alternately and have not been interrupted.

印度诗人潘特写过这样一句诗,黑暗不会自行消失,熄灭的灯必须重新点燃。前瞻性,正是重新点燃的火苗。中印要相互成就、相互“照亮”。不久前的金砖国家领导人第十四次会晤中,五国领导人也一致认为,要坚持多边主义,推动全球治理民主化,维护公平正义,为动荡不安的国际局势注入稳定性和正能量。国家之间难免存在矛盾和分歧,但搞你输我赢的零和博弈是无济于事的。

Bharat Bhushan Pant, an Indian poet, once wrote that darkness will not go away by itself, the lamp that was extinguished must be rekindled. Forward-looking is the rekindled flame. China and India should help and "illuminate" each other. At the 14th BRICS Summit not long ago, the leaders of the five countries also agreed that they should uphold multilateralism, promote the democratization of global governance, maintain fairness and justice, and inject stability and positive energy into the turbulent international situation. It is inevitable that there will be contradictions and differences between countries, but it is useless to play a zero-sum game.

和平发展、合作共赢才是人间正道。

Peaceful development and win-win cooperation is the right path in the world.

Editor's note: This article is originally published on Yuyuantantian, a Wechat public account. It is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

 

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